Updated Modeling Forecasts Peak for COVID-19 April Into May
UNDATED -- All of us social distancing seems to be paying off. Updated modeling forecasts have some encouraging news on the fight against COVID-19.
The revised forecast from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington's School of Medicine. It says, assuming full social distancing through May, Minnesota is about 17 days away from the start of the peak, around April 23rd.
They say we could have about 625 COVID-19 deaths in our state by August 4th, with around 24 deaths per day during the peak, but then dropping back into the single digits by early May.
The report also suggests Minnesota will need about 226 ICU beds during the peak, with the state reporting we will have 355 ICU beds available by then.
Nationally, they predict the peak in the U.S. will be around April 11th with as many as 3,130 deaths per day and a total of 82,000 deaths by August 4th.
The report says new data indicates patients who do not require ICU services their length of stay has gone down, but for those who need ICU services, the length of stay has increased.